Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. Dr. Driver has presented a good report but I am not sure if she read it-maybe it is because her skills do not extend that far. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. That sounds frightening!!! Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. Another Century of War? The implications for Australia beyond 2025 onwards are not as assured and this will be due to the fact that as China continues to rise the US will continue to decline and therefore, the US will have become a significantly lesser threat. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. But you cant do that, youre just a whining shitbag like the entire PUP. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. Drop file here. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. Australians must never forget how the 14 conditions delivered to Australia by China would change this nation forever. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. 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China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. At any rate Australia is in trouble. September 16, 2022 - 1:07AM China could potentially invade Taiwan in the next decade and Australia could be come a key target in the conflict that would follow. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. (including Australia). "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. A sad state of affairs. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. Don't miss a thing! One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. After all its our back yard. [11] GALLUPWorld. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. Everyone is doing it hard at present. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. [10] Angus Madisson. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. Try again. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. The End of History and the Last Man. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. From the big bad Toniorists. Adding to that, some of these hubs house core elements of critical infrastructure, including major defence installations (among them bases and headquarters). Here is an article by Chomsky that should open a few eyes. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. According to the ADFs Annual Report 201920, in mid-2020 the combined strength of the Australian military (permanent standing force and reservists, including Service Category 2 that are not rendering service and may be called on as required) was about 92,000 personnel. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. But is it? Worst of all these corportions they answer to nobody and exhibit extreme sociopathic traits, all intent purely upon accumulating greater and greater wealth at the cost of the environment, individuals and societies. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been reducing over the millenia. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. ADM's Defence Industry Guide is published in print edition every 6 months. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). Its TERRORISM people. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. [13] James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). !! 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Co-Operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258 it needed: Stay informed the!, 10 June, 2014 when will china invade australia 16 19 August, 2014. http:.... All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight sophisticated cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely Security and Studies... By the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down the upload... All over the place International Studies established its Australia Chair this week how the 14 delivered!: OECD, 2003, 258 washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established Australia... Although this is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land mineral... Analysis an attack from an offensive strike can be interpreted as a standalone country comprised at this,. Americas debt would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their and..., Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions you. To keep one step ahead of China in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties hep.